黔源电力,一座未被开采的金矿,未来发展分析 - 小众知识

黔源电力,一座未被开采的金矿,未来发展分析

2013年01月27日 14:18:05 苏内容
  标签: 黔源电力/水电
阅读:7328
五年前得益于海海人生的文章,黔源电力开始进入了我的视野,从而入选了我的自选股票池。当时粗略的研究了一下,感觉仍存在一些不确定因素,所以没有参与。但我深深的知道,那是一座未被开采的金矿。随着时间的推移,黔源电力的不确定因素逐渐减少,它从我的自选股中的位置也不断地前移,直到今年年初的时候,它已经是我自选股中位列第一的股票了,我知道是时候了,该买入了。
       在切入正题之前先让我们来看一张图表,以便了解黔源的资产状况:

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       一.  莫为浮云遮望眼,撇尽黄沙始见金
       (一)        黔源电力的价值根基。
       价值是决定价格的基础因素,价格无论是向上偏移还是向下偏移,也无论其偏移值是多么大,其最终都会穿越价值这个轴心,这是万古不变的真理。那么黔源的基础价值是什么呢?那就是它的重置成本。众所周知,随着土地;建材;劳动力;以及移民成本的逐年提高,水电站的建造成本也随之逐年上升。现在电站的建造成本起步价基本在1万元∕千瓦以上,多则接近2万。即便是成本上升如此之快,水电的建设还是呈如火如荼方兴未艾之势,是什么原因导致资本争先恐后的抢滩水电?除了水电的清洁之外,更多的则是出于抢夺战略资源和经济利益的考虑,毕竟能建水电站的江河与可建造的数量都是有限的。从这点看水电可称之为稀缺资源。由此我们就可得出黔源的基础价值即:
       188.6.万kw(权益装机)×1.2万(在不考虑时间成本和财务成本的情况下,按偏下限计算)=226.3亿
       188.6万kw×1.5万(在适当考虑时间成本和财务成本情况下取中值计算)
       =282.9亿
       再取两者之中值约为255亿,而黔源电力目前的总市值仅为24亿
       我认为上述的算法是合理的,甚至是相对保守的。众所周知,水电站的建设前期论证就要几年甚至十多年,建设周期少则三五年,多则七八年,由此造成的财务成本和时间成本是巨大的。此估值尚未考虑买入时7千万,建筑面积近3万平米,位于贵阳繁华路段的黔源大厦等非经营性资产的增值情况。
              以上估值减去黔源电力的全部权益负债约61亿(120×051% =61.2。  2013年报数据,采用母公司报表,合并报表中西源电力公司只占30%权益但表决权是50%故纳入合并报表)则得到黔源电力的资产净值约为160-216亿,对应黔源电力的股本,则每股净资产高达80-110元。下面让我们看一下最近几个拟建和在建电站的投资情况:
       查看原图       白河水电站建造成本1.61万/千瓦

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       小南海水电站1.6万


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       历经10年刚建成发电的托口电站,规模略逊于黔源总投资69亿的董箐,去年这时已投入95亿,建完估计也快到100亿了,每千瓦成本也到1.2万了。


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       最新批准建设的大藤峡水电枢纽建造成本2万元每千瓦。
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       再来看看资产质量规模远不及黔源的新华水电50%股权的交易价格。


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       查看原图       再来看看中国新科首富对水电的看法,高度不一样看待问题的水平就是不一样,强烈推荐观看全文!!!

       (另:感兴趣的投资者也可以去找一下一些丫丫河上的小趴趴电站的交易价格,有些其规模;来水;上网电价等远不及黔源旗下电站的资产质量,现在的交易价也在1.2万/千瓦上下。推荐百度水电吧,顺便可以学点水电知识O(∩_∩)O)

       (本段落数据来源于网络,以及公司2013年度报告,更多详情请找度娘。)

       (二)屋漏偏逢连夜雨,破船又遇顶头风——黔电悲催的十年,财务费用及干旱导致的估值双杀。
       上面一段文字谈浅谈了一下黔源电力的价值,说到这里有人可能会说:“谈这些都没用,黔源电力发电量不稳定,盈利一年,亏损一年,现在的价格都高估了!”的确,衡量资产价格的另一大标准就是其所能创造的价值,毕竟黔源电力是发电企业不是艺术品,就像一只母鸡,再漂亮不下蛋都白搭。
       那,是什么原因影响了黔源电力的利润呢?其根源就是发电量偏少和巨大的财务费用。这里我们先来说一下黔电的财务费用,由于黔电上市以来始终处于大规模的投资建设期,而相对自身资金有限,公司始终处于高负债的状态。其近几年负债规模始终在百亿以上,财务费用6亿以上, 对应每股负债60元以上,每股财务费用3元以上。数据源于合并报表,贷款主体不明,具体的每股权益数据没法详细计算,但根据母公司报表推算母公司的贷款数额约15亿(2013年报数据),则相应的每股权益负债约35元每股财务费用近2元。

       下面,我们着重来分析一下黔源电力的发电量情况。根据公司最近几年发电量数据的分析,其近几年的发电量始终低于其各电站的多年平均发电量。我翻看了公司2004-2013十年的年报,来水偏少;大旱;重旱;多年不遇等词充斥着各份年报,即便是公司所说的来水情况较好的2012年,其发电量也仅有多年平均发电量的8成左右。2013年更是偏少5成以上,仅2008年一年,引子渡和普定的发电量略超过了多年平均值(当时其它电站还没投产)。而我查阅了一些水电站建设的可行性分析报告,大多数水电站都是以30年以上的水文数据作为多年平均发电量的依据,由于没有找到黔源各电站的报告,由此推断黔源电力应该也不会例外。
       那,是什么原因导致了黔源电力近几年的发电量大幅低于历史平均值呢?难道真的像有些朋友说的那样是环境恶化导致的?随着时间的推移贵州地区降水会越来越少?一切结论都应以事实的科学的数据为依据,于是我带着这些问题试图探索贵州气象数据的变化规律,但这需要十分专业的知识并根据贵州气象志进行大量的数据分析,幸运的是已经有人走在了前面,使我们通过几篇学术论文就可以发现其变化规律。通过对贵州历史气象数据的分析,我们发现贵州降水,尤其是夏季降水成典型的10a左右的周期变化,即降水由峰值转向谷值约10-12年,由谷值转向峰值约10-12年,而黔源电力上市的10年,恰恰正处于贵州的降水由峰值转向谷值的十年,这正是黔源电力近年来,发电始终低于预期的原因!而现在,最坏的时期已经过去了,未来的十年,贵州将迎来一个降水相对颇丰的十年。摘取部分资料如下:

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       查看原图       通过资料分析,我们可以发现贵州降雨在过往80-90年来的总体变化趋势为旱季降雨减少,汛期降水增多。总体年降水减少,但是幅度不大,≤10mm/10a。(也就相当于一场毛毛雨,况且在更长的周期里也会有其变化规律)同时我们也可以看到其枯丰期呈明显的周期变化,即以10-12a为单向周期,20-25a为循环周期。简单的说就是进入丰水期后将持续10-12年,再后进入10-12年的枯水期,完成一个大的循环大概20-25年,即由一个谷值或峰值到另一个谷值或峰值需20-25a。通过资料我们得知贵州上一个极枯年(谷值)是1989年,从1990年为转折点开始进入降水偏多的周期,通过推算我们得出贵州下个极旱值将出现在2009-2014年之间,而事实也再一次验证了统计预测学的神奇,和贵州降水周期规律的有效性,贵州2013遭遇了百年大旱。
           由此同样我们也可以推算出,贵州降水在2014年成为相对丰水期转折点的概率较大,今后进入10-12年丰水周期的概率极大!!!以此推算黔源电力在未来10-12年的平均发电量必将超过100亿度的多年平均值,或将达到平均120亿度╱年,若以13年为谷值,其峰值发电量或达到150亿度上下!!!在不考虑电价上涨的因素下以目前黔电的平均上网电价0.30元计算,其每年产生的现金流则为:30-45亿元  ( 100亿度×0.30=30亿       120亿度×0.30=36亿   150亿度×0.30=45亿 )在扣除财务费用,管理费用,工资福利,等费用后其可用于还款的现金将至少不小于20亿╱年,随着其财务费用的逐年减少其或将在未来5-6年内偿还全部贷款。5-6年后仅财务费用的减少就可增厚每股利润2元。
       注:(以上因素为静态,未考虑公司增加其他领域投资的可能,未考虑龙滩蓄水至400米高程对董箐水头的影响。马马崖是贵州最后一个电站,公司再投资其他大型水电项目的概率不大,至于其是否有他领域的投资我后面会有论述,欲知更多资料,还找度娘。)

       二.燕雀安知鸿鹄志,羽翼丰时自翱翔——关于新能源的畅想
       对于一家每年产生大量现金流的企业来说,没有再投资的冲动是令人难以想象的。马马崖建成后公司不再有大型的水电项目,随之的财务压力将大幅降低,面对今后平均每年30亿左右的现金流,除偿还贷款外,再投资将成为公司的必然选择。公司的后续投资方向也是我一直关注的焦点,在今年的公司投资者互动交流会上,公司董事长王文琦明确表示:公司下一步的投资方向是新能源,那会是什么呢,风能;水光互补;还是页岩气?也许我们能有迹可循:

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       查看原图       通过上述资料,我们不难发现华电在黔的主要新能源发展方向就是页岩气,且是以乌江公司为主体的。乌江电力兼黔源电力的董事长王文琦就是页岩气开发战略小组的组长,而黔源电力的党委书记刘靖则是副组长,黔源如果向新能源领域发展,则页岩气是最大的可能。目前沪深两市的页岩气概念股基本都是设备商,如黔源投入则必定进入的是勘探开发领域!        华电之所以选择以乌江电力为勘探开发页岩气的主体,主要有两点考虑,一点是在华电内部水电和新能源是一个部门,统称为水电新能源事业部,再者就是水电企业良好的现金流。页岩气的勘探开发可是高风险高收益行业,随便打一口井都一两个亿,如果没气或形不成商业气流这钱就瞎了,所以说玩页岩气需要很强的资金实力为后盾,别看有些小公司,今天这个发个公告参与国土资源部招标,明天那个参与招标的,大部分都是打酱油的料。由于黔源电力的新能源尚存不确定性,在此不做具体分析。


       三.春江水暖鸭先知, 择栖大鸟报春来.
       资本是嗜血的,总有一小部分人能先知先觉地洞察到事物的细微变化,他们注定是市场的强者。有人认为泽熙一季度的突击进入并提出10送10是一种短线行为,很快就会出货。我认为不尽然,泽熙在提出议案的时候就应该知道这项临时提案通过的可能性不大,我认为这其实是一枚烟雾弹,其背一定另有阴谋。徐虽很成功,但是其操作手法招致的骂名大家也是有目共睹的,俗话说:“树大则招风,木秀于林则雷必劈之”难道徐喜欢被冠以游资匪首的恶名?拿破仑说过“不想当将军的士兵不是一个好的士兵”,其实在徐翔的心里又何尝没有一颗成为巴菲特的心?这点从其基金起名中便可看出一二,“泽熙”不仅有润泽万世、阳光普照的意思,其音同择栖,更有鸟择良木而栖之意。我们知道,不同的资金规模需要不同的投资策略,其以往的操作手法只是完成资本快速积累的过程,随着其资金规模的扩大,其操作风格的转换也将成为必然。这种投资风格的转型不仅是为了适应监管的需求,更是资金规模壮大以后的必然结果。而这种转型则必需有一项成名之作来得到市场的认可,“钱”源电力缘何能进入泽熙的视野?除了其严重低估的内在价值和逐渐改变的基本面外,从风水学的角度上看笃信风水的徐选择黔电也将是必然,有心的朋友可以发现“泽”(水集聚的地方) →“源”(水之源)“熙” →“黔”,像黔源电力这种有水,有源,有光照(电站),的个股纵观全球股市也找不出第二家了!我在这里只能叹机缘之巧合,姻缘天注定了。说到这里也许会有人问“这么好的票怎么没公募基金,只有一家私募呢?”以我多年来对基金风格的研究,我总结了一句话——私募赌的就是不确定性,而公募投的则是确定性。但我相信,随着黔源电力业绩的逐渐释放,将来一定会出现基金云集的壮观景象!
       (声明:以上部分纯属意淫,如有雷同实属巧合。)
       四.良马若遇贤能士,莫用扬鞭自奋蹄。
       俗话说火车跑得快,全靠车头带。一个好的企业负责人其思想;战略眼光;开阔意识;领导力;执行力对一个企业的发展起着至关重要的作用。说道这里我们不得不说一下2012年新上任的黔源电力的董事长王文琦先生,其早年分配到青岛电厂后从基层做起,93年任主要领导岗位后,在其主导下使装机只有11万千瓦的青岛电厂在短短数年内成倍扩大,成为当时山东首屈一指的电厂,创造了良好的经济效益和社会效益,因此被评为全国五一劳动奖章,被冠以创业英雄的称号,其胆略意识可见一斑。其后他又逐渐做到了华电的副总,王文琦儒雅而温和,但谦谦君子不掩铮铮风骨,他有着“浩荡入溟阔,志泰心超然”的气度。2012年,身为济南人的王文琦被从济南调往贵州,任乌江水电兼任黔源电力的董事长,身负着“济”南方之水的使命,踏上了新的征程。

       查看原图       五.水电恒久远,一股永流传——万年不倒的混凝土重力坝
          去年曾经看过一部美国纪录片《人类消失后的世界》,在人类消失之后的几百至几千年后,人类创造的文明将相继消失,一万年之后几乎全部消失殆尽。但,混凝土重力坝将是能够保留下来的,为数不多的人类建筑之一。而相对应的则是大坝25-50年;水工设备15—20年的折旧年限,从早期电站看水工设备只要维护得当,使用50年也不是问题。从这点看水电股就像一坛尘封的老酒,越陈越香。待到折旧完毕,一台台发电机就像一台台印钞机一样!相对于现在有些人买保险,少则一二十年多则数十年的投资期限,如果把买保险的钱投资水电股,年轻的买来养老,年纪大点的买来留给子孙,岂不比买保险强数倍?

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       查看原图       强烈建议对水电投资没有信心的朋友观看!
       六.十载背运今朝祛,八方报得佳音来。其它影响公司未来业绩的因素及盈利前瞻。
       
       

       查看原图       在这里我们先来分析一下上网电价,马马崖和善泥坡都是黔电送粤的重点建设项目,发电后电送广东已经明确,而目前广东火电(脱硫)上网的价格为0.52元,专业人士推算出的贵州—广东的过网费约0.08元,线损不明确。如果通知的精神得以贯彻,则马马崖的上网电价协商参照价应在0.40上下。由此看黔电未来的电价上涨空间是非常有想象力的。

       查看原图       公司表示,按照光照发电厂2013年实际发电量计算,2013年北盘江公司将获得增值税返还2912.9万元,计入收到当年收入。根据2014年预计发电量测算,扣除当年预测进项税后,2014年至2017年将分别获得增值税返还4919.63万元、4919.63万元、2639.38万元以及2639.38万元。------实际情况应该比此更好,再次重申贵州降水进入丰水周期的概率极大,
       仅此则增厚公司2014-2015每股利润0.25-0.40元
       盈利预测:在这里我不想对黔源电力未来数年的每股盈利做具体的预测,一是,因为就黔源电力目前的股价而言毫无意义,(我想应该至少等黔源股价到50以上再说吧^_^)二是,即使在不考虑电价上涨的因素下推出的数值都。。。。大的我自己都不敢相信。下面就借用临渊羡鱼兄的表格以作参考吧:

       查看原图
       注:临渊羡鱼兄的表格按75亿的发电量推算,未考虑马马崖,善泥坡,牛都电站,此三电站投产后的多年平均发电量是100亿度,权益是56亿度。贵州进入丰水年后发电情况要好的多,因为有谷必有峰,所以未来的平均值肯定大于100亿度。其它,如:碳交易收入,财政补贴等全部忽略不计。)


       七.此股只应天上有,愿君,且买且珍惜!——综述:
       我时常地在问自己:
       什么样的企业即不用跑市场,又不担心自己的产品没有销路?(水电优先上网,电网全额收购);
       什么样的企业不用担心逐年的通胀导致的成本上升,且随着折旧的减少成本越来越低,利润越来越高?
       什么样的企业以极高的杠杆坐拥着巨大的资产,享受着因通胀带来的资产升值而产生的巨额的隐性利润?
       什么样的企业在创造巨大利润的同时,即不产生废物;废水;废气;又能抗旱;防洪;保护环境还能有所收益(碳交易)?
       什么样的企业每年拥有大量的现金流,又不用担心货款的回收,不用担心企业能否永续经营?
       难道,这不正是价值投资者所追求的极致吗?五年,十年也许很漫长,但对于一个投资者一生的投资生涯来说也算不了什么。回想你过去的5-10年,你又获得了多少收益呢?就像一个好的女人,值得你用一生去爱她呵护她,一个好的企业,则值得你用一生去投资!就像巴菲特投资可口可乐一样,且买且珍惜吧!
       感谢上苍吧!正是有了气候的周期变化,才蒙蔽了众人的双眼,让我们以如此之低的价格能拥有它!珍惜吧!随着时间的推移,它必将成为沪深股市中又一颗灿烂辉煌明星,放出璀璨夺目的光芒!让我们一起拥有它,共同见证它明天的辉煌,拥抱美好灿烂的明天!
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