养老金空账,我们真的会老无所依吗 - 小众知识

养老金空账,我们真的会老无所依吗

2013年01月27日 14:18:05 苏内容
  标签: 养老金/空账
阅读:7328



年过三十,秋风画扇。

一篇“80后老无所依”的文章,着实让我这个“80后”心头一沉:上有老、下有小,手里的“粮”又不够多,规规矩矩领份工资交份保险,嚷着盼着等退休,却从没想到,等咱退休后的日子竟这样让人难过。

一、养老金空账,几个意思?

随着“人口红利”消失,按现行养老机制,“80后”老去时,养老金就不够花了。生育率降低、人口老龄化趋势日益严重……工作人口与老人人数之比将从眼下的5.5:1,到2025年将变成3.0:1,到2040年则变成2.0:1,“80后”陆续退休时,接盘养老的年轻人越来越少了。

而雪上加霜的是,这些年来养老金亏空,社保基金入市等消息甚嚣尘上。财政部自己公布的《2015年全国社会保险基金预算》就显示,剔除财政补贴后,计算出的2015年中国养老保险“亏空”数额将超过3000亿元。

这都是什么败家玩意啊?

当查到《2014年全国社会保险基金预算》,主人翁们大概会气得更加吹胡子瞪眼。数据显示,2014年企业职工基本养老保险基金收入21489亿元,支出19117亿元,剔除财政补贴后,当期保费收入与支出相减,亏空1563亿元。

2015年中国养老金的亏空数额翻了近一倍。照这样下去,家底都得败完了啊,谁还放心把钱交出来。

说到这里,有必要讲一下,我们的养老保险机制到底有多严(cha)谨(jin),才会把这么多钱给败完了。

我们目前实行的是“统账结合”的养老保险制度,所谓统账结合,就是“社会统筹+个人账户”的制度,企业缴纳职工工资的20%进入社会统筹基金,个人缴纳工资的8%存入个人账户。

假如谁都是从一开始进入这个制度的,养老金亏空的问题至少不会这么快爆发。但不是啊!现在的企事业养老制度是1997年开始的,当时国务院发布26号文正式规定中国城镇企业职工统一实行统账结合制度。

问题就在于:1997年以后进入企业工作的“新人”,从工作之初即开始缴纳社保金;但1997年之前已经退休的“老人”和具有一定工龄的“中人”,他们因为此前没缴纳过社保,这也导致了社保账户中存在“历史欠账”。

为了解决老国企员工空账户的问题,统账结合制度在设计之初就规定,社会统筹部分实行“现收现付”,即将统筹资金用于支付当期退休人员的养老金。 

但随着中国人口老龄化的加剧,社会统筹部分的资金支付能力已不能满足,只得挪用在职职工个人账户中的资金用于支付养老金,从而使个人账户也成为“空账”。

什么意思?就是很多现在养老待遇的领取者,当年其实并没有交过养老保险,现在只是通过挪用个人账户资金,向年轻人借债来归还这些老人的“债务”,年轻人原本用于养老的资金已经被提前挪用,他们老年后,只得再由下一代年轻人偿还。

这种模式听着是不是很熟悉,所以很多经济学家戏称社保制度就是个“庞氏骗局”,就是下家给上家交钱,等到找不到足够的下家,骗局就要破产。

现在工作中的年轻人交的养老金,其实都已经给现在的老年人花掉了,等我们这代人退休之后,要下一代给我们交社保,问题是下一代人数越来越少了,哪里去找那么多下家?

人社部发布的2014年度人力资源和社会保障事业发展统计公报显示,去年全年城镇职工基本养老保险基金总收入25310亿元,仅比上一年增长11.6%;全年总支出为21755亿元,比上年增长17.8%。

(而2013年城镇职工基本养老保险基金总收入22680亿元,增长率为13.4%,增速下降4.99个百分点;总支出为18470亿元,比上年增加了2909亿元,增长率为18.69%。)

另一指标则更直观地显示出制度自身的可持续性压力。从养老金征缴收入的增幅看,几乎呈现断崖式下跌态势,2008年至2013年的数据分别为23.4%、18.9%、16.5%、25.6%、18.0%、13.2%,而在2014年,这一数据降至了个位数,仅为9.7%。

况且去年底通过、今年开始实施的机关事业单位工作人员养老保险制度改革,也就是通常说的养老金并轨,势必让未来的养老金兑付更加力不从心。

据专家估算,养老并轨后,近四千万人未缴部分视同缴纳,单位今后还要负担工资20%,将是一个数万亿元的“缺空”,对已经紧绷的养老金总盘子带来巨大压力。

没有下家,这养老的事总不能不管吧。之前股市那么好,不就有人提议让养老金入市了吗?但要清楚的是,入市的钱总不会是也不应该是全部的钱,当然国家也是这么想的,谁有这个本事稳赚不赔啊。

所以,就算社保基金(包含个人账户养老金)保持了8%左右的投资回报率,但多年来基本养老保险基金的投资年均回报率仅约为2%,能否追上通胀还不好说——2014年,审计署对全国社保基金的审计结果显示,由于负利率的侵蚀,“躺”在账户中高达2.7万亿元的养老金,仅在2013年的损失就高达178亿元。

暂且不说15年的最低缴纳时限,退休后能不能活到拿够本的年纪,以及在这期间的通胀这些事了。这套制度是黏上毛比猴还精明的人算出来的,咱肯定是越算越泄气(不信就自己百度看看)。

但对政府来说,眼前养老金的亏空总不能看着它越来越大吧,不然谁给你交钱啊?好在养老金(以及其他社保)的规定的确一直在更改中,尽管大多数改对我们来说是越改越吃亏。

二、除了等天收,我们还能做什么?

骂归骂,其实机关事业单位工作人员养老保险制度改革就是第一条,好歹这些以前光拿不交的人们开始交钱了啊,他们也是在给养老金“补血”,特别是新进入“体制”的人,开始给前辈们“还债”了,斗争有效!

第二,就是大家都不愿面对的延迟退休方案。

养老并轨改革方案被全国人大常委会审议之后仅两天,清华大学就业与社会保障中心提出了一种延迟退休方案:从2018年起实施渐进式延迟退休改革,最终男女退休年龄统一调整到65岁。

根据测算,退休年龄每延迟一年,养老统筹基金可增长40亿元,减支160亿元,减缓基金缺口200亿元。但是,谁愿意呢?尽管杯水车薪,但还是很可能在不久的将来就会推出。

第三,养老金实现全国统筹。

目前养老保险有些地方有结余,有的地方是亏空,有人就提议“劫富济贫”,比如一些发达地区如广东等地盈余较多,但绝大部分西部地区处于收不抵支的状态,主要依靠财政补贴。

第四,划转国资。

对,原本就应该对全民负有责任的“共和国长子们”也该做点贡献了。2009年国务院发布了《境内证券市场转持部分国有股充实社保基金实施办法》,规定凡在境内证券市场首次公开发行股票并上市的含国有股的股份有限公司,均须按首次公开发行时实际发行股份数量的10%,将部分国有股转由社保基金会持有。

然并卵。官方数据显示,截至2011年年末,国有股份累计划拨给全国社保基金理事会的资金仅2119亿元,只占中央和地方持有的全部国企股份净资产的1%,占国有上市股份的1.5%。

历史的债总是要还的,迟还早还,落到谁的头上都是无辜的。更何况,改革到位、更为公平、覆盖城乡的全体养老保险的逐步实现,一定程度上可能缓解短暂的养老金兑付问题,但长期来看,担子势必越来越沉。

理想的美好,终抵不过现实的骨感。

------------------------------------------ 我是画风突变分割线-------------------------------------------------------

颠簸的时代,让无数的内心兵荒马乱。难怪在这个时代,那么多人都想躺着,而且最好也把钱赚了。

一毕业一上班,没过多久就开始老气横秋地感慨社会不公、体制失衡;公司勾心斗角、恃强凌弱;甚至连父母强势、另一半自私,都狠狠抱怨一番。可谁不是叫苦叫累着,就这么把日子过下去的呢?

更何况无论躺着、站着把钱赚了的,哪个不是异常努力,才让自己看起来不费力气。

在新时代号称独立、自主成长起来的这代人,我想总不至于真愿意等着拿那几块养老钱过着稍许“体面”的生活,不如在这个最好的年纪,多想想怎么赚钱,甚至创造可以惠及更多人美好将来的机会,而不是沦落到真的只会“躺着”,唉声度日。

当然,如果哪一天,有位尹天仇似的人物突然跟你说“我养你啊”的时候,也不妨爽快得答应下来吧。你要知道,世道艰险、各自保重的江湖,这样的人不多了。


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