爱康国宾花落谁家? - 小众知识

爱康国宾花落谁家?

2013年01月27日 14:18:05 苏内容
  标签: 爱康/国宾
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 美年大健康买方团与张黎刚买方团针对爱康国宾收购与反收购案在沉寂了一段时间后,近日突然呈现连环对手大戏。
   
围观:爱康国宾花落谁家?
   
   
    2016年1月5日,张黎刚买方团宣布其新近买方阵容。时隔不到24小时,美年大健康买方团便于2016年1月6日晚间也公布了最新的阵容,除也有业内顶级投资大佬如赛领、纪源资本、海通新创加入外,要约价格再次提升到每份美国存托股份25美元或每份普通股50美元,比张黎刚买方团报价溢价约40.4%。另外就是提出两步交易的合并结构。这也是继美年大健康买方团在2015年11月28日首次发出要约,2015年12月14日第一次提价后的再次提价,此举粉碎了之前外界认为的美年大健康方面只是搅局或玩票性质的说法。而张黎刚于2015年8月高调宣布私有化决心,到在媒体上发表言论,针对美年买方团采取一些列的措施,再到2016年1月5日公布最新买方团阵容,其私有化和共生死的决心似乎也是铮铮铁骨。两相对垒,高手过招,最有看头。
   
围观:爱康国宾花落谁家?1
   
   
    虽然双方必争的决心旗鼓相当,但是纵观目前采取的措施,总体感觉张黎刚买方团稍显乏力。包括之前关于其“毒丸计划”、“一票否决权”等安排,在业内人士看来,实际效果也未必有用。
   
围观:爱康国宾花落谁家?2
   
   
    “毒丸计划”的本质是防止潜在竞买者不与特委会友好直接沟通而采取的一种对限制恶意收购的手段。爱康国宾的特委会启动“毒丸计划”,限制的是恶意竞价的买方团,而本次事件的主角,美年大健康和张黎刚均成立了各自的买方团,都与特委会在展开有序的沟通和协商。如果说限制或击退,双方在这点上倒是一个战壕的。所以要想私有化顺利进行下去,“毒丸计划”只是缓兵之计,被取消是迟早的事。美年大健康买方团不仅积极主动的在与特委会进行友好且建设性的沟通,价格更比张黎刚买方团最早每份美国存托股份17.8美元报价溢价了40%,特委会需要面对压力,慎重决策,倘若置中小股东利益不顾而强行同意张黎刚买方团的低价方案,则是以巨大的法律风险和个人声誉为代价冒天下之大不韪。所以在特委会都是正直守信的专业权威人士组成的情况下,出现这种结果的可能性其实并不大。
    “一票否决权”也是张黎刚在媒体上多次强调的。虽然张黎刚个人持有12.95%的股权及约34.5%的投票权,超过总表决权的1/3,但按照开曼公司的规定,要到达2/3的投票权私有化合并协议才能通过,所以张黎刚及其买方团,还需要争取其他中小股东的同意,这个还是与价格息息相关。
    前面已经两次提到了收购中小股东的关键点——价格。而在2015年1月5日,张黎刚买方团公布的阵容时,并未提出要约价格变化这一说法,而且此新阵容中的大佬成员可无约束性撤出也被解读为“弱约束”。这也进一步加重了张黎刚在美年大健康买方团不断提高竞价过程中显出被动无力的态势。
    而美年买方团的优势似乎是出价“壕”到底的节奏。张黎刚买方团刚刚宣布新阵容后,就立刻再次提价+公布新阵容+收购交易路径,除了反映迅速和坚定的决心外,早有实力充分准备是根本原因。尽管张黎刚买方团不排除继续扩大外援的可能性,但是美年买方团,表现得更有底气,体现出仍手握杀手锏的信心和气度。
    收购路径包括发TenderOffer(现金收购) 再Merge(合并),此举是步狠棋。怎么讲?美年大健康买方团就可以直接抛开张黎刚及其盟友,在公开市场直接对爱康国宾的其他股东发出现金要约。这个时候价格就是一切,可以争取到更多的中小股东。张黎刚是否反对已无关紧要,完全取决于爱康国宾广大中小股东自己的意志。其次实现合并(Merge)。美年大健康买方团收购到爱康国宾超过一半的投票权时就得到了爱康国宾的控制权,控股之后的美年大健康买方团可以召开股东会,提出改选爱康国宾董事会,并继续用现金购买其他小股东的股份,从而使爱康国宾成为一家私营公司,其中美年大健康买方团为大股东,而如果张黎刚等异议股东如果选择不合作则作为私营公司的小股东继续留在爱康国宾。
    另外,如果双方一味拼价格,对双方压力都巨大,客观上说对张黎刚个人更加不利。为了确保回归A股并获得相对控制权,粗算下要筹集30亿元人民币。回归后,每年光支付私有化过程中的借款,利息就要3至4亿元人民币,靠爱康国宾输血显然产能很难达到。靠再融资,显然在收购借钱时就已经把股权质押了,如再次质押,是资本大忌。
    还有时间问题,即便顺利退市后,回归A股,也是道路曲折、漫长。尽管A股高溢价是这些年中概股回归的终极目标,为此真是前赴后继,有条件上,没有条件创造条件也要上。从私有化退市到拆VIE、重组、选板上市、排队独立IPO、运气借壳。但是超出了非理性的强行私有化,这些不确定性都对投资者是巨大的风险。
   
围观:爱康国宾花落谁家?3
   
   
    收购价格战是双刃剑,对于美年买方团,也会有资金压力,但是情况相对要从容得多,也单纯得多,风险相对可控。美年的买方团更多的是多年跟随的价值投资者,所以这次关键时刻能表现给力,此外,时间和融资手段上说,美年买方团相对要更充沛。
    张黎刚的意气,美年大健康的决心,都让国内体检行业第一收购案引起媒体及外界的高度关注,这某种程度上说对于整个体检行业是好事,但是也希望双方能够在理性的前提下竞价,否则巨大风险的债务问题最终伤害的是投资人。


爱康国宾(NASDAQ:KANG)在去年众多的中概股私有化案中,以管理层最初报价计算的规模只有区区的12亿美元,本是一桩很不起眼的私有化。但是,因为美年大健康借壳的A股上市公司江苏三友(002044.SZ)加入,使得这笔私有化注定会成为中国一个经典的并购争夺战。这个故事与1980年末发生在美国的雷诺兹-纳贝斯克集团竞购案有非常大可比性:

1.       都是由管理层首先发起的将上市公司私有化;

2.       都有外部投资者加入与管理层争夺公司所有权;

3.       报价都比最初的要约价大幅提高了。当然,爱康国宾的私有化还在发展过程中,最终的结局还很难预料。

中美这两个并购战也有很多区别

1.       以张黎刚为首的买方团不仅仅是管理层,还是公司的创始人,本来就占公司不少股权和超过三分之一的投票权,而雷诺兹-纳贝斯克集团的管理层并不是公司的大股东,更不是公司的创始人;

2.       外部竞购方江苏三友不是一家PE机构,而是竞争对手;

3.       虽然都没有明确的说,但无论是管理层还是江苏三友买下爱康国宾之后,都要到人傻钱多的国内A股市场来变现;这与KKR收购下雷诺兹-纳贝斯克集团之后,自己聘任新管理层经营,并进行重组资产、压缩成本完全不同。当然,不管是张黎刚还是俞熔方拿下爱康国宾之后,都会自己经营,他们看到也不只是国内与美国市场的估值差异,应该还有其他战略上的考虑,比如更接近自己的用户和投资人,补充在不同细分市场上的实力等。

我们不妨回顾一下爱康国宾这场火药味十足、还没有结束的竞购战。

第一阶段:风平浪静

2015年8月31日,张黎刚联合方源资本提出了私有化要约,要约收购价为17.8美元/ADS,9 月10 日,爱康国宾董事会宣布成立特别委员会,之后特别委员会于11 月10 日聘任了相关的财务顾问及法律顾问,协助开展评估要约的具体工作。

第二阶段:风云突变

2015年11月29日晚间,美年大健康借壳的江苏三友发布公告,宣布组成买方团参与竞购爱康国宾。买方团成员除江苏三友之外,还包括:深圳市平安德成投资有限公司、太平国发(苏州)资本管理有限公司、华泰瑞联基金管理有限公司、北京红杉坤德投资管理中心(有限合伙)和凯辉私募股权投资基金。江苏三友提出的要约收购价为22美元/ADS,相较于张黎刚先生及相关私募股权基金提交的无约束力的私有化初步要约所提议的每份美国存托股份17.80 美元的报价溢价约23.6%。

张黎刚随即发表公开申明,表示他“个人将与爱康共命运、共进退,不会支持任何其他竞争性交易”。四天之后,爱康国宾的董事会就抛出了股权摊薄反收购措施,即所谓的“毒丸计划”,这个计划主要是防止收购方从二级市场大量购入公司的股票。

2015年12月14日,也就是在张黎刚的董事会抛出“毒丸计划”十天后,江苏三友再次提高收购的报价至23.5美元/ADS。张黎刚和美年大健康的董事长俞熔也在媒体上你来我往,一个说自己才是爱康国宾最好的主人,另一位则说行业大势就是合并。

发展到这里,能力圈(AbilityCircle)曾公开发布文章,认为俞熔的买方团实力雄厚,而张黎刚的买方团太过单薄,显得实力不够,应当寻找更多有实力的买家加入自己的阵营。

第三阶段:大战升级

果然,1月5日爱康国宾发布公告,宣布爱康国宾CEO张黎刚、Time Intelligent(张黎刚的持股公司)、ShanghaiMed(张黎刚的持股公司)、方源资本,阿里巴巴投资有限公司,中国人寿投资控股有限公司,新华保险旗下的投资公司,LTW资本捷豹投资有限公司,安大略省教师退休金计划委员会和天津君联赟鹏企业管理咨询合伙企业(天津联想投资云鹏合伙企业(有限合伙))组成了新的私有化买方团。这个新买方团中包含了实力雄厚的阿里巴巴、中国人寿、新华保险等,但是新买方团并没有提出新的竞购价。

这一次只隔了一天,俞熔方就提出了新的方案,不仅将竞购价提高至25美元/ADS,而且进一步优化了收购方案,提出了将收购分为两步的交易结构,即在张黎刚反对的情况下,以现金方式收购与张黎刚无关联的股东的股份,先把爱康国宾变成私化的公司。

如果这起并购案真的走到俞熔所说的这一步,对爱康国宾这家公司来说肯定是一个灾难,因为这意味一家非上市公司的大股东和有否决权的二股东天天打架,哪里还有精力和心情去经营好企业?

应该说,俞熔最新打出的这张牌非常狠,计算精准。它抓住了小股东私有化报价越高对自己越有利的特点,同时也抓住了张黎刚在公司股权不多的弱点。

第四阶段:未来会怎样?

接下来,就等着张黎刚出牌了。

对于张黎刚来说,一种选择就是提高收购的报价,与俞熔方竞争,这是最直接的,但这种情况下,俞熔方有可能会再次提高报价,最后很可能像雷诺兹-纳贝斯克集团竞购案一样,会提高到一个过高的价格。

张黎刚的第二个选择,就是将更多的老股东加进自己的买方团。在爱康的股东名单上,早期投资人何伯权拥有超过13%的股权,比张黎刚还多,但是还没有加入买方团,我想张总应该与何总关系很紧密,让他加入到买方团不是个难事。另外还有复星这样的财务投资人,也是可以争取的。

张黎刚的第三个选择,就是拖。进入2016年这半个月,A股出现了暴跌的行情,去年年底大家还在担心王石被姚振华赶出万科,最近变成大家担心周一万科开盘后,姚老板的帐户会不会爆仓了。幸好,万科上周五晚间发布公告,公司继续申请停牌,这对于姚老板来说也不知是好事还是坏事。爱康国宾的股价因为俞熔方报价的提高也不断地走高,但这几天或许是因为A股的大幅下跌,也使得股价下跌了不少。因此,拖字诀说不定还是最管用的,随着A股估值水平回调,俞熔方提价的可能性也在下降。

以上三个策略,张黎刚可综合使用。

张黎刚其他的选择还有,与俞熔合作、把股份以高价卖给俞熔方、终止私有化并同时保留“毒丸计划”等,但这些在我看来都是较劣的选项,不到万不得已,张总肯定不会选。尤其是最后一个终止私有化就是鱼死网破的策略,应慎重再慎重!

【申明:作者为职业投资人,文章所提到的公司他可能投资了也可能没有。投资有风险,本文不构成对任何人的投资建议。】

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